Texas Housing Insight

Housing sales grew modestly despite mortgage rates remaining elevated. The average home price grew alongside sales, with the cost rising over $9,000 since December 2023. Single-family starts and permits both increased as well.

Inventory Growth Outpaces Sales Growth

According to the latest data, Texas had a 3.6 percent increase in total home sales month over month (MOM), resulting in 29,999 homes sold (Table 1). Most of the major cities experienced a slight upswing. The most significant increase was in San Antonio (11.8 percent) with an increase of over 339 additional sales compared to January. Dallas showed an increase of almost 700 homes, an 8.7 percent increase. While Houston experienced remarkable home sales last month, February was uneventful as growth flattened.

The state’s new listings stand at 45,696 in February, continuing the upward trend. Three of the four major metros posted monthly increases with Dallas and Austin experiencing a remarkable surge of 25.7 percent and 23 percent, respectively. Houston had an increase of 17 percent. This is the highest number of new listings in Houston in a decade. San Antonio, which was down 1.8 percent, was the only one among the Big Four to experience a drop.

The state’s average days on the market (DOM) increased from 56 to 57 days.  Dallas increased to 52 days and Houston reduced to 48 days after staying consistent at 50 days for two consecutive months. Both Austin (74 days) and San Antonio (68 days) recorded increases, falling by one and two days, respectively. Along with a higher DOM, statewide inventory increased from 3.6 to 3.9 months.  

All of the Big Four metros had more active listings than in January. After experiencing its largest drop, Austin rose by 11.6 percent. Dallas (23,000) and Houston (25,655) had increases of 2.5 percent and 4 percent, respectively.

Mortgage Rates Remain Below Peak Values

Treasury and mortgage rates remain below their elevated 2023 levels as the ten-year U.S. Treasury Bondyield rose to 4.25 percent. The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate fell by 14 basis points to 6.78 percent.

Single-Family Construction Gets an Early Start

In Texas, the number of single-family construction permits increased by 2.9 percent month over month, reaching 13,355 issuances. Houston exhibited a substantial surge of 31.6 percent, whereas Dallas and San Antonio had more modest increases of 7.7 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively. Interestingly, Austin was the only major city to experience a decrease, with a decline of 7.9 percent.

Construction starts rose alongside permits, according to data from Dodge Construction Network. Single-family starts rose by 31 percent MOM to 15,630 units. In January, Austin reported 1,469 single-family housing starts, which slightly decreased to 1,434 in February. The other major cities in Texas experienced varying trends: Dallas rose 41.59% to 3,595 starts, Houston saw a 56% increase to 5,368, and San Antonio had a modest 3.3% rise to 844 starts. Austin, down 2.4 percent, was the only one among the Big Four to see a fall in single-family starts.

The state’s total value of single-family starts climbed from $3.97 billion in February 2023 to $5.79 billion in February 2024. Houston accounted for 35 percent of the state’s total starts value. Starts value activity is up from last year as Austin and San Antonio also posted moderate increases.

Home Prices Stable in February

The state’s median home price essentially stayed the same as last month at around $341,000 (Table 2). Across major metropolitan areas, home prices experienced marginal upward shifts, all remaining below the 1 percent mark. Notably, Austin witnessed a slight decline of 0.4 percent, the lowest among the four major cities. In contrast, Houston recorded the most substantial increase, with home prices rising by 0.8 percent.

The majority of sales fall into the $200,000-$300,000 and $300,000-$400,000 price range cohorts, accounting for 28.2 and 22.6 percent of total home sales, respectively.

The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index (Jan 2004=100) grew 1.4 percent MOM and 3.4 percent year over year (YOY). Austin’s annual appreciation remains well below the states’ average, falling to 1.6 percent YOY.

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